ProComputerGambler Free Picks

We are looking at the Cincinnati Reds' seasonal performance based expectancy. The blue line represents how well they have been performing in the last 15 days while the red line represent a cumulative performance data to date.

Any deviation from the two lines usually means the team is under-performing or over-performing to their potential. This is an important factor to consider all season long when betting bases. We all love the theory of the law of averages, but you never know when to apply it. Right? Just because a team is doing poorly for example doesn't necessarily mean they are due to be a better one. What matters more is a consideration for a team to regress to its own mean.

Let's take a look at the Reds here as play off candidates...here is an inside look (and maybe you can thank me later for a good futures wager) at why the Reds could win it all. Aside from the fact that the Reds have a great ratio of home win% to away win% (a great indicator of team quality); the Reds seem to be under-performing to their own potential right now. What this is going to mean to you, the bettor, is that you are probably going to get them at a great price. More importantly it means that the Reds have something in store for us all.

When looking at the two lines on this chart, try to look at it as a cyclic wave. Take this thought to the bank: you will find cycles in EVERYTHING.....except global warming I guess :-)

compare more playoff teams here.

David Price and Evan Longoria are not impressed. And rightfully so.

The Tampa Bay Rays 4-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles Monday wasn't half as disappointing as the plethora of empty seats -- a crowd of 12,446 -- in St. Petersburg, Florida. A good team who's on the verge of a playoff berth should have no problem putting asses in the seats no matter who they're playing, right?

Apparently not.

Evan Longoria had this to say to the St. Petersburg Times regarding his disappointment in attendance (or lack thereof) at Tropicana Field:

We’ve been playing great baseball all year. Since I’ve been here in ’06, the fans have wanted a good baseball team. They’ve wanted to watch a contender. And for us to play good baseball for three years now, and for us to be in a spot to clinch again and go to the playoffs, we’re all confused as to why it’s only 15,00 to 20,000 in the building.

He followed that up with this explanation, so as to not piss off the public... even though the truth hurts.

I’m actually just trying to rally the troops and get more people in here. It’s a tough situation for us. A lot of the visiting teams come in and wonder where are all the fans. It’s a little bit embarrassing for us. Again, we’re one game away from clinching a postseason spot. We have enough guys in this room to celebrate with, but we’d love to celebrate with the fans, too. It’s just tough to see that.

Price also later apologized via his Twitter account, saying "If I offended anyone I apologize I did not think it was gonna turn into this..."

No apology necessary, David. In my opinion, someone should have said something long ago. Maybe Rays fans will take the hike down to The Trop tonight to cheer on their team as they attempt to clinch a berth once again at 7:10pm ET when Price takes the hill against Orioles right-hander Brad Bergesen.

Update: Read more about what the Rays organization plans to do to fill the house for their team.

[St. Petersburg Times]

MLB plays just sent via mail...4:49PM

NFL WEEK #3 Plays
(2010-2011 Season):
Record: $2,091.00 (9/22/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
20-17-0 52.6% +4.55 units

**************************************************
Week #3 Plays:
I have some monster plays here. The lines are moving so I want to get them in now.
Remember what I said about a good capper beating the lines?
You'll thank me later in the week on some of these...hopefully.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 -110 against the Panthers
(Take the BENGALS -3 for $33 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

Baltimore Ravens -10 -110 against the Browns
(Take the RAVENS -10 for $154 - 7 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-Straight up emotion here with the Ravens. I am projecting a 27-14 win for the black birds at home.

Tennessee Titans +3 +100 against the Giants
(Take the TITANS +3 for $20 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-Projecting 29-24 for this away dog.

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 -110 against the Saints
(Take the FALCONS +4.5 for $22 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-Will the Saints ever be dogs this season? I love them, but there is always going to be a little bit of value betting the dog spread against them. I won't always do this, but in this case I see an incredibly strong team knocking on their door this weekend. I am projecting a 23-20 win for the Falcons. You may actually consider a small wager on the money line for beer money.

**TOP RATED PLAY** (So far 2-0 on these [Giants week1 and Green Bay week2])
New England Patriots -14 +105 against the Browns
(Take the PATRIOTS -14 for $190 - 10 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-The numbers are projecting a 27-13 victory here which isn't a lot for this big spread, but there are so many positive factors working here for the Patriots to just demolish the lowly visiting Bills. This line is rolling as we speak. The public is on this which isn't ever good for us, but I think the public is right here (not that I ever want to follow them). Notice how the linesmen and books prepared by creating an insanely expensive money-line... The Bills show signs of being the worst team in the league, and very few are going to find any value in taking the Bills here except in a middle attempt. This game just reeks of a slaughter though so I wouldn't even bother middling. This game is the main reason why I am up at 4:00 AM getting these plays out to you quickly. I can see these line rolling past 14 and just not coming back. I'd get it while it's hot!

Seattle Seahawks +6 -105 against the Chargers
(Take the SEAHAWKS +6 for $105 - 5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-I am projecting a 24-22 win for the Seahawks here at home. I haven't been all that impressed with the Chargers personally. They had an easy win last week, and are going to walk right into a trap here in Seattle. People really underestimate the 49'ers and I saw these guys take an easy win straight out of their hands. ***This play you could probably wait on until closer to game-time. I honestly don't see people getting on any Seahawks bandwagon. I suggest taking your time on this one...it is possible that it may roll to 7 which would be a great spot to be in here.

Dallas Cowboys +3 -115 against the Texans
(Take the COWBOYS +3 for $34.50 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-I am projecting a 34-17 win for Boys here. There is a lot of pressure for Dallas to get a kick off in the season now, and home and away probably won't be an issue this time with a lot of folks cheering on the Boys in Houston. The Texans want to keep the drive alive, but if they are going to collapse I think it will be today. Take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 -115 against the Eagles
(Take the JAGUARS -10 for $23 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-I am projecting a 27-22 win for JAX.

Miami Dolphins -1 -120 against the Jets
(Take the DOLPHINS -1 for $24 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-I pick the Dolphins here for a smaller bet to keep their hot run alive at home in Miami against a shaky (yet tough) Jets team. I am projecting only a 16-18 game here for the FINS, but I think that they'll surprise a lot of people here. Take a point on the Fins.

NFL WEEK #3 ADDONS

After some observation of line moves and internal affairs we have decided upon several additional plays. This is a big week. As I mentioned before, you are going to make sure that your base unit is 1% or less; no more.

For NFL Week #3 I am ADDING:

6pt. Teaser ATL Falcons +10.5 and the NO/ATL under 56
(Take the TEASER -110 for $33 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
-Already have ATL booked for a unit. Don't go for more than that..

Minnesota Vikings -11 over the Detroit Lions
(Take the VIKINGS -110 for $66 – 3 UNITS bet based on $20 units)
Favre and company are now 0-2. They have to prove they are for real, and beat up on somebody….Enter the poor Detroit Lions. Minnesota simply has their number, beating the Lions 20 out of the last 21 games. Adrian Peterson will easily have a huge game, which will set up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Brett Favre. As if he'll need them. Detroit's secondary is an abomination, as they are currently ranked 31st in that department, allowing 9.5 yards per pass attempt. Detroit is stuck with Shawn Hill in the quarterback position, and he young, inexperienced, and he isn’t Stafford.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3 over the Pittsburgh Steelers
(Take the BUCS -120 for $36 – 1.5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

Arizona Cardinals -4.5 over the Oakland Raiders
(Take the CARDINALS -110 for $33 – 1.5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)

For NFL Week #3 I am RE-TAPPING:

Tennessee Titans +3 +100 against the Giants
(Take the TITANS +3 for $40 - 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
***This is now a total of 3 units on the Titans***
Additional thoughts: One of the best plays over the years, is to bet against the loser of Monday Night Football. The Manning brothers match-up was way over hyped, and the Giants looked horrible. The Titans are 20-12 ATS in the underdog roll over the last couple of years…and we love the dogs..The Titans were sloppy in their loss last week, and will be re-focused this week as they are the better defense limiting the Steelers last week to only 78 yards on the ground. Tennessee simply out played Pittsburgh last week in their loss, but were extremely sloppy. (My condolences if you bet the Titans last Sunday… you got screwed) Vince Young also has the better offense, and they are getting a gift field goal in the spread.

Dallas Cowboys +3 over the Houston Texans
(Take the COWBOYS -110 for $66 – 1.5 UNITS bet based on $20 units)
***This is now 3 units total on the Cowboys***
Additional thoughts: This is a must-win game for them. If they're 0-3 going into their bye, they risk falling two games behind everyone in the NFC East. Jerry Jones’ Team can’t afford to be 0-3. The Texans embarrassed the Cowgirls in a nationally televised preseason contest; the revenge factor is in play. This is the first time Houston has been favored in this rivalry. Look at the point spread, the books are baiting the public into betting Houston. Everyone is high on Houston and down on the Cowboys. If Vegas really wanted equal action, they would have made Houston -4.5 or -5. We warned you last week about Dallas, again it’s one of the teams we are in sync with.

NCAAFB 2010(Week 3)

Record: +$198.00 (9/18/10) from $20.00 Units (9/11/10)
12-7-0 63.1% +9.9 Units

TOP PLAYS Record: 2-0 +$120.00 +6 Units

NCAAFB 2010(Season record for 2010 Season)
Record:$2,328.00 (9/18/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10)
23-12-0 65.7% +16.4 Units
TOP PLAYS Record: 4-0 +$200.00 +10 Units

Thoughts: Interesting to note that last week, games that with heavy favorites of -21 or more on the big board went 8-1. Teams these days know they have to run up the score to hold position, instead of taking their foot of the pedal and coasting home.

(THURSDAY NIGHT)
Pittsburgh +3.5 over Miami
(1 UNIT for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
(FRIDAY NIGHT) In the Battle of the U’s
TCU -17 over SMU
(2 UNIT for $44 - bet based on $20 units)

****Top PLAYS*****
Missouri -20 over Miami of Ohio
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
Maryland -11 over Florida International
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)
Iowa -28 over Ball State
(3 UNITS for $66 - bet based on $20 units)

JUST MISSED GROUP…

Middle Tennessee -2.5 over Louisiana Lafayette
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)
Idaho -7 over Colorado State
(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units)

THE ONE UNIT PLAYS -The rest of the herd…

Georgia Tech -8.5 over North Carolina State
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
Ohio State -42.5 over Eastern Michigan
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
North Carolina Pick over Rutgers
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
Troy 10.5 over Arkansas
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)
Oregon -11.5 over Arizona St.
(1 UNITS for $22 - bet based on $20 units)

BETTORS BURIED!September 21, 2010

Week 2 of the NFL was a tough one for the players as the Nevada sports books had everything fall perfectly for them. The books had the perfect mix of upsets in games that negated any outstanding parlay risk liability from the small money as well as beating the sharp plays. Players weren’t able to get any momentum throughout the day as popular teams like the Eagles got back-doored late and the Patriots got beat straight up.

Other games that helped the books were the Vikings losing to Miami, the Steelers winning at Tennessee and the Bears beating the Cowboys. All three of those games were large home favorites which are always popular. In each of those instances, they played a major a role in eliminating parlays throughout the day.

The sharp bettors didn’t fare much better as they lost with the Eagles, Ravens, Cardinals and Jaguars. The books could have made it a clean sweep if not getting sided in the Redskins game. The Texans had bounced around from 2½ to 3-point favorites all week and a late 17 point comeback by the Texans forced overtime where they eventually won by three.

Usually the Sunday night game is a powder keg of cumulative risk throughout the day where the favored side and over the total is always a bad combination. While the Colts 38-14 win was one of the only losses on the day for books, it was a lower than most weeks just because of risk being limited throughout the day games.

Overall, the favorites went 6-9 Sunday with seven of the underdogs winning outright on the money line. The biggest favorite of the day, Green Bay -13 got there while the two biggest moves didn’t. The Bengals opened as a pick ’em at home and the line shot up to Ravens -3 by kickoff. The Jets were a tentative 1-point favorite prior to their Monday night loss to Baltimore and by game time the line had the Patriots -3. In both of those instances, there was a major over-reaction to what had happened in their games the week before.

Back to the Drawing Board

Two teams that faced each other in the playoffs last season now find themselves 0-2 to start the season after getting upset at home last week. The Cowboys and Vikings were large favorites and each lost quite convincingly. The Bears had been bet by some sharp play early in the week pushing the opener from Cowboys -9 to -7 by game time. The Vikings were bet down to -5½ by game time and lost 14-10 to the Dolphins. In both cases, turnovers were the keys with Brett Favre throwing three key picks and fumbling once.

As for the Bears, we bang on Jay Cutler so much for his interceptions but rarely give credit when he plays well. On Sunday, Cutler was fantastic with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He played one of his best games ever with mixes of short quick passes and long bombs that kept the Dallas defense off balance all day. After going 0-4 in pre-season with everyone, including me, saying the Mike Martz-Cutler relationship was in trouble, the Bears now find themselves 2-0 atop the NFC North.

Titanic Turnovers

After an unsuccessful three quarters against the Steelers, starting quarterback Vince Young was yanked in favor of veteran back-up Kerry Collins. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out with Young’s fragile psyche as the year goes on for the Titans. Confidence is a huge part of his game and if the coach isn’t showing him any, we could see more games like we saw Sunday. In all fairness to Young, the Steelers are playing some of the best defense in football right now.

Titans running-back Chris Johnson had his streak of 11 straight games with 100 yards rushing snapped by Pittsburgh. Along with losing the game and the streak, Johnson also lost his chance of hitting his lofty goal of 2,500 yards rushing.

He Just Might be Best

Jahvid Best broke loose for a big first half against the Eagles with scores of 14 and 75 yards. Despite losing to the Eagles, Best put in a pretty productive day with 78 yards rushing and catching nine passes for 154 yards. Best scored three touchdowns in the game giving him five for the season making him only the fourth player since 1960 to score two TD’s or more in their first two games.

QB Controversy

So, do we have a QB controversy in Philly? Not according to head coach Andy Reid who announced before their game that Kevin Kolb will start in week 3. Reid may have been just looking for a way to end all the questions from reporters by throwing it out there early, but how can he sit Vick with the way he’s playing in favor of Kolb? Philly fans want Vick in there as well and it will be the talk of the week on sports radio. Vick also doesn’t help ease the matter with own comments either, saying if he would have played the entire first game against Green Bay that he would have won that game too.

The Titans using Kerry Collins with Young not being successful won’t be an issue this week, but in Oakland, coach Tom Cable will have a tough decision to make. With Jason Campbell only able to put three points on the board in the first half, Cable made a move cheered on by the Oakland fans and brought in Bruce Gradkowski to start the second half. It paid off as Gradkowski had three scoring drives leading the Raiders to a 16-14 win over the Rams.

Other NFL Notes

In Sunday’s Texans-Redskins overtime shootout, both quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards for only the sixth time in NFL history. 1994 was the last time it happened with Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe airing it out. Matt Schaub came three yards short of making it the only time in NFL history there has been a 500 and 400 yard passer in the same game.

Chargers rookie tailback Ryan Mathews hurt his right ankle and was carted off the field in the second quarter of San Diego’s 38-13 win over Jacksonville. Mathews came back onto the field in the third quarter and said he could play, but he was told they didn’t want to risk him. It’s quite possible that the team simply didn’t want to risk Mathews turning the ball over again. In the first two starts of his career Mathews has had a fumble in each.

This Week

There are three games with double digit spreads and seven home dogs. The Buffalo Bills have signs of being the worst team in the league and have a hard time trying to make a case for them at New England. I’ll be looking to take the Broncos and the points at home against the Colts along with the Bears getting points at home on Monday night against the Packers.

Quote:
New York Giants -7 -110 against the Panthers WIN
(Take the GIANTS -110 for $66 - 3 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

Quote:

I have one Re-Tap for NFL Week #1:
New York Giants -6 -110 against the Panthers
(Take the GIANTS -110 for $44 - 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

***That is going to be 5 units total on the Giants***

Snagged the big one, and 5-2 with two solid plays pending in action.

Sign up for these plays at herbshackpicks@gmail.com

Three additional plays for Sunday Week #1:

San Francisco 49ers -3 +100 against the Seahawks
(Take the 49ERS +100 for $60 - 3 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers ML +110 against the Falcons
(Take the STEELERS +110 for $27.27 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Philadelphia Eagles +3 -105 against the Falcons
(Take the EAGLES -105 for $63 - 3 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

Good luck.
-Tom

**Any final adjustments 1 hour before game-time. Fairly certain this will be all thought.

Guys,

A nice win on the Saints there. Books made equal profit on sides, but killed it on that oddball game total. The game followed one powerful trend so it wasn't really a surprise here, but I'll admit that at a time the over was tempting. Be aware of traps when you see them. Statistically speaking 47 is more of a key game total than 48, and notice how this game rolled all around the area above 47. When it only came close to nipping the 47 at 47.5 it just started getting slammed again on that over. Trap by my standards = back off.

I have one re-tap for NFL Week #1:
New York Giants -6 -110 against the Panthers
(Take the GIANTS -110 for $44 - 2 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

***That is going to be 5 units total on the Giants***

Week 1 NFL 2010:

Thursday, September 9, 2010
New Orleans Saints -4 -110 against the Vikings
(Take the SAINTS -110 for $33 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

Sunday, September 12, 2010
Miami Dolphins -3 -120 against the Bills
(Take the DOLPHINS -120 for $72 - 3 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
New York Giants -7 -110 against the Panthers
(Take the GIANTS -110 for $66 - 3 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
New England Patriots -3 -130 against the Bengals *buy 1 pt.
Take the PATRIOTS -110 for $33 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Baltimore Ravens +3 -125 against the Jets *buy the 1/2 pt. if needed
(Take the RAVENS-125 for $25 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 against the Texans
Take the COLTS -120 for $36 - 1.5 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Patriots/Bengals under 45 -110
Take the UNDER -110 for $22 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Tennessee Titans -6 -110 against the Raiders
Take the TITANS -110 for $22 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)
Denver Broncos +3 -120 against Jaguars
Take the BRONCOS -120 for $24 - 1 UNIT bet based on $20 units)

***Ladies and Gentlemen,

Records up to date are as follows:
NCAAFB 2010 Season:
Record: $2,086.00 (9/12/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10) 11-6-0 64.7% +4.3 Units

MLB 2010 Season:
Record: $2,633.69 (9/12/10) from $1000.00 (6/13/10) +131.00 units

NFL 2010 Season:
Record: $2,083.00 (9/12/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10) 9-7-0 56.3% +4.15 units
*************************************************************

I am once again introducing a key part of Pro-Computer Gambler who will for now just be referred to as "The Ole Computer." He needs little introduction. My partner was in the famous “Computer Group” back in the 1980’s…They won millions according to the F.B.I. records betting college football, and he killed the books again tonight. Take a look at how he did today:

NCAAFB 2010 (his record from Week 2)
Record: +$94.00 (9/9/10) from $20.00 Units (9/11/10) 7-3-0 70.0% +4.7 Units

NCAAFB 2010 (Season record for 2010 Season)
Record: $2,130.00 (9/11/10) from $2,000.00 (8/26/10) 11-5-0 68.7% +6.5 Units

****Top PLAY*****

LSU -10 over Vanderbilt

(2 UNITS for $44 - bet based on $20 units) WON

The rest of the herd…

Auburn -1 over Mississippi State (Won last night)