Record 2/17

34-25-2 55.7% (+40.85 units) +$8,170.00

2/17

Take:

Marshall -4.5 (2 units)
against Tulsa

Penn State +7 (3 units)
against Northwestern

2/12

Hey guys,

Sorry for the low volume of picks. I am only going to give you the best ones that I can offer. No crap just to get some in. This is why we are up units and we will stay up. FYI, ask folks who know me; MLB is my expertise, so get ready for more action then. I plan on showing you guys some of the elements to betting on MLB as well. So stay tuned folks!

For today,
Take:
DART/BROWN u119.5 (1 unit)

2/9

Take:

LA Clippers +5.5 (1 unit)
CHI/IND u205.5 (1 unit)

Western Kentucky -2 (1 unit)
against Houston

VCU -4 (1 unit)
against George Mason

Record

Great SuperBowl and an amazing run. I hope you guys cashed.

32-20-2 59.2% (+41.35 units) +$8,270.00

2/8

Take:

New Mexico State -2.5 (1 unit)
against Louisiana Tech

Bowl

Adding:

Saints/Colts u57.5 (Bodog) (2 units)

Nice win on those Raptors earlier today.

Record 2/7

We had two nice wins for 2/6 Milwaukee and Tex EP added 4 units to the books for us. I hope you guys followed that one I know it kind of got covered up by my big Superbowl post. This is a great way to move on to the SuperBowl. Like I said before not a game to go betting the house on. You have plenty of folks betting this one recreationally, and that is not what we are going to do. 2 units is all that I was to put on this game. Here is a little rule of thumb that I like to follow: if the game is going to be good, then you probably don't have a good bet on it. The "good" games are often the ones that will throw you a curve.

28-20-2 56% (+33.55 units) +$6,710.00

Early Pick 2/7

Toronto Raptors -8 (3 units)

Super Bowl XLIV Free Pick

26-20-2 54.1% (+29.55 units) +$5,910.00

Let's try to come back today. I'll be playing the Saints tomorrow for the super bowl; I see every reason to take them as dogs for a very small bit at least for value (although what I meant was that I see every reason for the Saints to win this one regardless). The public is all over the Colts so I am going to analyze this one here:

First let's look at the opening line. The average ML for a line of 2.5 is:
-132.9 for the Favorite (Colts)
and +109.7 for the Dog (Saints)

The actual averaged opener was about -155 and +135 Giving an automatic edge towards the Colts. Now this is important because it is the unaffected fresh line. The linesmakers are setting the ML askew having the opinion that even money will come in only if the Saints are set as bigger dogs.

So what does the market look like? We had the Colts line getting pounded immediately for whatever reason moving our line up to about an average of 5. Perhaps the Colts got pounded because they were marked initially as bigger favorites than the line dictates. Big names also move the line by the square public. This one has got Peyton Manning vs. the what were their names again? My guys are the Saints fellas; I've been watching them all season long, and these guys play like machines and they play with passion. If I can say one thing: my opinion is that they are hugely underrated after I see how this line has moved.

Okay, back to the line analysis. Let's look at the average range and then compare that to the actual. For a line of 5 points we should have a ML of -249.0 and +199.3. Across the board we are seeing an average market line of -209 and +175. So what we are seeing here is a reversed deviation, and now the Saints being a little more favored. This super bowl has seen pretty good reverse line movement, and now I think the avg. line of 5 will stick or move more towards 4.

So as of now we have a slight market edge on the Saints, but not a very large one. I am analyzing this game for you guys to show you that if you want to go by this system please realize that the Bowl is a game like any other as far as making money is concerned. This is a game where it is probably better to go on and fade the public as a rule of thumb. The superbowl is always going to have more suckers all over it than any other game so don't be one too. Keep to your system and don't go betting the house on this one game. I will take the Saints for 2 units.

Saints +6 (1 unit) Bodog
Saints ML +180 (1 unit) Bookmaker

If we lose this one we are still doing just fine boys.

2/6

Take:

Texas El Paso -5.5 (2 units)
against Tulsa

Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 (2 units)

NBA 2/5

Sacramento +3 (2 units)

2.2 Halftime

Take:

Nebraska -1.5 (4 units) **Halftime**

2/2

Take:

TCU +19.5 (1 unit)
Wisconsin -2 (2 units)